We all have been hearing about how life and things would not be the same as we make advances in quantum computing, robotics, IoT, AI, et cetera. That was then.
The COVID-19 pandemic has hastened that process. What we were contemplating day after tomorrow is going to be tomorrow.
As we emerge out of this crisis that has brought the world to a grinding halt and ushered into isolation, would the world, the people, the societies, businesses, trade, governments change from business as usual, for better, and in some cases, for worse?
This question arises because in fight against the pandemic the government around the world are expanding their roles in economy. Given the expected huge hit to the world economy, it is justifiable that the governments only can mobilise resources to enforce lockdown of industries and isolation and help prevent economic collapse. But the biggest bailout in the history by governments and central banks around the world, the governments have assumed commanding heights of economy. The scale of involvement also covers surveillance of people to track movements of Corona positive people and trace those they came in contact with. This is all good to check the spread. The question is will they retreat from the economic and private space once the world economy recovers from the COVID-19 shock? History suggests otherwise. So be prepared for big governments in tech and economy dictating terms and following you for a longtime after COVID -19 war is won.
The nations are more likely to withdraw inward into autarky as supply chain shock has caused loss of trust and more and more nations are raising trade barriers to restrict exports of medical supplies and banning exports of certain medical devices, medicines and certain commodities. Going forward, regulation register will get bulkier with expanding state support. This would lead to higher public dept and the state would have no option but to recover some with higher taxes and levies. The world probably would see less dynamic capitalism and free trade that it was used to.
This pandemic has shown fault lines in preparedness of healthcare system of many countries. Particularly in local capability of production of clinical and protective equipment and paraphernalia. Dependency on imports of face masks, respiratory masks, ventilators and protective gears led to acute shortages. Post Pandemic, expect many nations to allocate greater share of their GDP to public healthcare and design policies to encourage local production of medical equipment and essential drugs and pharmaceutical ingredients. Again, here, the governments would have no choice but to ask citizens to share the burden.
Businesses and industries are going to fundamentally change. Industries around the world would aggressively pursue diversification of supply chain to significantly reduce dependency on any one source. More emphasis will be given to local sourcing and local markets. Governments which are quick to realise this and create appropriate policy framework and incentives to encourage investments for local quality manufacturing at scale and competitive rates will benefit.
Companies will draw up elaborate contingency plan to cope up with future such disruption when more than half of the global GDP had to be shut and other half lumbering. This might make companies to hold on to greater amount of cash. The same goes with households. They will save more to cushion them from future shocks of unpaid salaries or loss of jobs. In result consumer demand would remain flat until confidence is regained. This would make recovery of global economy much more lengthy than many expect that to be V shape.
Workplaces and factories are going to go through some important changes in ways employees and workers are going to be spaced out. There will be new protocol for separation between workers, hygiene, regular disinfection of surfaces and screening of workers. Assembly lines which normally see workers cluster around will be spread. While companies will probably go for hybrid system of on-site and work-from- home for their employees, the factories would see more automation and remote operation. Many companies would likely to opt for could-based services so that work-from-home becomes.
Travel will become more cumbersome. Particularly, air travel. Time taken for getting into and out of airports could become longer with new measures like screening and disinfecting baggage, requirement to fill in declaration forms on health and travel history of travellers. Getting visas for international travel could become difficult and involve lengthier process involving tests for COVID-19. This could stay at least till a proven cure or vaccination comes about.
The pandemic has caused millions to lose their jobs and getting their citizens back to jobs would become priority for countries. As a result, many developed countries are likely to heavily restrict work permits for foreign nationals.
Some most desirable change, particularly in developing countries, could be in behavioural habits of people in public. Just like we see in Western countries, people spitting, coughing or sneezing without covering the mouth or littering in public spaces are going to get hard stares or reprimand from others. The government of India should seize this opportunity and introduce bill for heavy fines or imprisonment for spitting, littering public spaces. We could see more people with masks in public spaces.
Will all these be new normal or things would be business as usual after sometime? Only time will tell. However, changes in work places, factories, supply chain logistics would be there for good.
One thing though I hope change in India is client-patron relationship in politics. Even in the middle of the crisis when people took the Prime Minister’s call for remaining at home quite seriously and responsibly, few connected people still were able to get VVIP treatment and flouting all norms. They could not have done this without help from authorities. While the poor and the hapless and stranded migrant workers with no decent shelter or means of subsistence were denied passage to their homes citing fear that they might carry virus to rural areas, hundreds of buses were arranged for pilgrims and students to transport them from far away places to their homes. No such fear then? Even the pandemic is given communal and class colour.
I know I am digressing but could not help highlighting discrimination. The cause for this is both the people and the politics. How true the great visionary Dr. Ambedkar was when he said, “The factors on which the working of the organs of the state depend are the people and the political parties they will set up as their instruments to carry out their wishes and their politics. Who can say how the people of India and their parties will behave?”
The world may or may not be the same post-COVID-19, but hope that India would see a people-politics relationship based on mutual trust, respect and equality.
Views expressed are personal.
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