2015: First Few Days

The dawn of 2015 brought news of a suspect boat from Pakistan set to fire by its occupants when intercepted by Indian Coast Guard based on intelligence inputs.  The Indian Navy's Coast Guard, stung by criticism following 26/11 attacks carried out by terrorists who came by similar route from Pakistan, acted with commendable alacrity, what Congress thinks notwithstanding. Who cares who were the occupants and whether they were terrorists trying to sneak into India or smugglers. The end result is good news for us that our security apparatus failed some operation that was obviously looking suspicious.  And that is good news to begin the New Year.  And it seemed to end there. 

It actually got ugly. The barbarians masquerading as savior of Islam created mayhem in Paris; rather than saving the Honor of Islam as they claimed, they put the true followers of Islam, a religion professing peace, to shame. A female suicide bomber blew herself and a policeman in Istanbul in Turkey.

The gloom continues.

Stokemarkets had shaky start to the year. The Indian Stockmarket tumbled to record one-day fall in last four years in the first couple of days into the new year on the back uncertainties in Greece precipitating into possibilities of Grexit; the looming exit of Greece from European Union and falling oil prices- Brent crude briefly fell below $50 a barrel.

Eurozone starring at deflation. Libya is in existential crisis as East-west conflict intensifies into civil war.  Inflation in Ukraine shoots to above 24%.  

In India, coal mines workers went on a 5-day strike after the government's Ordinance for e-auction of coal blocks that would open doors for commercial mining by private players. It seems after the fringe affiliates of the ruling BJP tearing at the secular fabric of the nation, its another affiliate, the labor wing of RSS, Bhartiya Majdoor Sangh, is rearing its head.  That it is country's largest and most influential trade union makes it a natural suspect behind this strike move to discomfiture the Government.  The first lot with its communal hate mongering acted as enemies of its own family-the BJP.  The Modi-Amit Shah winning combination suffered electoral setback in Jammu and Kashmir poll in relation to their calculation because of loose cannons and rogues in the family.  The second lot will derail development agenda of Prime Minister Modi.  

But all is not gloom and doom. There are some good and positives, both for the world and India.

As I am writing this, a million and more are joining a solidarity March in France against terrorism and to Honor the victims of recent terrorist attacks.  Leaders of around 40 countries, including Muslim and Jewish statesmen linked their arms. There are thousands of Muslims, including Palestinians, walking shoulder to shoulder with Jews. The Muslims all over the world are very unfortunate lot.  They have to bear the brunt of the acts of few misguided radicals claiming to represent Islam.  

The scientists have invented a new class of antibiotics after a gap of 27 year since the last new class was invented.  This has come at a time when humanity was facing a prospect of post-antibiotic era when common infections will no longer have a cure.  It may well be that some Maha Rishi in Vedic times 7000 years ago must have known or used these new class of antibiotics too!

The American economy is showing signs of a turnaround as growth prospects brightens.  There are signs of economic benefits spreading to common Americans.  The GDP growth is revised to 5% amid signs of growing incomes and job acceleration.  Consumer sentiment has grown positive, property prices are rising.  The budget deficit has fallen below its average of past 40 years.  In part it is due to falling oil prices but growth in jobs and incomes are major contributors.

The positive outlook of American economy is good news for the world. Just as the 2008 sub-prime mortgage crisis in America that engulfed entire world in recession and economic set back, the economic upturn in America will have ripple positive effect for many economies around the world.

In India too, 2015 holds promise of higher growth.  The domestic and foreign investors sentiments are positive.  Inflation is sobering.  Current Account Deficit has narrowed, helped by falling oil prices.  Although fiscal deficit has widened, it is still manageable.  The IMF and World Bank forecast is for 6.4% for India is for India in 2015. Prime Minister Modi has already made some policy moves that has sent positive signals to investors. After dismantling Planning Commission, which most thought had outlived its utility, he has constituted in its place, the NITI Ayog, a think tank to give policy directions to the government. He has appointed leading economists and experts in key positions. It is like National Advisory Council in the previous government time. But there is a difference, a big one.  Unlike the NSA, the NITI Ayog will be chaired by the prime minister himself, and thus not an extra constitutional body like the NSA, which worked outside and beyond the control of the Government but still exerted more influence than the government of the day!

There is lot to be done to propel India to a robust growth and to ensure that its benefits reach to poorest of poor.  If this government holds the course it has set itself to and is able to truly live up to its promise of "together with all, development for all."