Voting in Bihar for the first phase of the election on 121 seats is sealed in EVMs. The voter turnout was highest ever in last 20 years, or may be highest ever – close to 65%, a good about 13% higher than in 2020.
The electors’ mood at this stage often provides early signals, yet Bihar’s political landscape is anything but linear. The state has historically oscillated between coalitions, leaders, and narratives, guided as much by social coalitions and caste configurations as by development expectations and leadership credibility.
The 2024 General Election Swing — A Strong Signal
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Bihar saw a dramatic reversal. The Mahagathbandhan (RJD–Congress–Left), which had won 61 seats in the 2020 Assembly elections, was reduced to just 25 seats in parliamentary terms. This was a remarkable swing towards the NDA, led by BJP and Nitish Kumar’s JD(U).
However, Bihar voters have shown a known pattern:
General elections → Vote on national leadership (Modi factor)
Assembly elections → Vote on local governance, caste arithmetic, and delivery
This partly explains why in the region voted today, electors may have preferred the NDA in Lok Sabha polls but remained equivocal in the last Assembly election.
But highest voter turnout in last 20 years, particularly, as reported, women who came out in larger number to vote than did men, could mean stamp on incumbent government, given Rs. 10000/- each transferred to 25 lakhs women by Nitish Kumar under Mukhyamantri Mahila Rozgar Yojana.
Or is it to boot him out? To give Chance to Tejashwi Yadav who has promised one government job per family in case Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance of opposition) elected to the office. Though fiscal calculation makes such promise impossible to fulfill. But that reality never dawns on masses who suffer from lack of job opportunity forcing them to migrate away from families and keep them in perpetual poverty. For them, prospect of even distant possibilities of getting jobs in government is something to worth taking chance and vote for the party promising it.
Historically, higher turnout correlates with anti-incumbency. Higher turnout changes outcomes when it brings into the electorate groups that previously stayed home—often the poor, youth, women, first-time voters, rural voters, and politically unaligned citizens. These groups are less predictable and often vote for change, not continuity. Globally as well, higher voter participation points to a same pattern in most cases.
But in India, several logical explanations apply to figure out the impact of higher voter turnout due to caste-mobilization, booth-level organization, and large rural electorates.
Logic 1: Higher Turnout = Anti-Incumbency (Most Common)
- 2014 Lok Sabha: Turnout highest in 30 years → Strong anti-incumbency → UPA lost power.
- 2017 UP Assembly: Higher turnout in rural/youth pockets → Shift to BJP.
Logic 2: High Turnout reinforcing Incumbency (When enthusiasm favors ruling party
If the incumbent has:
- Strong welfare delivery (DBT, food security, Ujjwala, health insurance)
- Strong leader appeal – (Modi phenomenon)
- Weak fragmented opposition (this is the prevailing situation in India)
Then higher turnout can help the incumbent.
- 2019 Lok Sabha: Extremely high turnout, yet NDA returned stronger because turnout surge came from beneficiaries + nationalist sentiment and popular leadership appeal of Modi.
Logic 3: Women Turnout Rising = Stability / Pro-Incumbency
Recent elections show:
- Higher women turnout tends to support leaders promising welfare stability, not agitation-based change.
- Example: Bihar 2020, MP 2023, Odisha and West Bengal patterns.
Logic 4: Impact Depends on Who Turnout More
A. Youth Surge
- Tends to disrupt status quo
- Often votes on aspiration, jobs, identity
B. Poor / Welfare Beneficiaries Surge
- Tends to support party delivering visible benefits
C. Women Surge
- Determines result in swing states (Bihar, MP, Odisha)
- More influenced by welfare, safety, and cash-transfer benefits
D. Urban Middle-Class Surge
- More issue-driven, can swing toward strong leadership or stability messaging
Now if you apply above logic to higher voter turn out in the first phase of the Bihar assembly election, we can deduce the following:
1.) Anti-incumbency factor – more likely – particularly for incumbent CM Nitish Kumar for his lust to remain in the seat. Nitish Kumar’s triple shifting of alliances— NDA → Mahagathbandhan → NDA again — has created a trust gap among certain voter groups, especially youth and non-core JD(U) voters. If we go by media reports and political commentariat, to one segment, he appears pragmatic and seasoned, while to others, he appears power-driven and ideologically rootless.
The “fatigue factor” with Nitish is visible — but the question is: does it translate into votes against him or just reduced enthusiasm?
My ruling is reduced enthusiasm meaning dent in JD(U) tally in comparison to the 2020.
2,) High turnout reinforces incumbency, particularly when enthusiasm favours ruling party - there is no evidence on ground of any such enthusiasm for either ruling party or incumbent chief minister. But that does not necessarily mean the vote against ruling alliance, particularly the BJP as an alliance partner seen as the stable, single-anchor force, the national development guarantor, and the long-term alternative to both Nitish- and Lalu-era politics.
My ruling is that the loss of seats by JD(U) would go to both BJP and RJD, not all to BJP
3.) Women Turnout rising – usually indicate that they were driven out following cash handout just before the announcement of elections. Or May in the hope of their men in family getting jobs in government as promised by Tejashwi.
My ruling is again both BJP and RJD getting equal share of women votes.
4.) Youth and Urban middle-class – There is no report of surge in youth or urban middle-class voting in the first phase as election commission has yet to release data. But media has not reported any surge in either. The surge in youth voters usually suggest vote for change and the middle-class usually vote for status-quo.
My ruling is that both categories voted for stats-quo with youth voting might slightly have aligned to RJD.
Committed vote base
Both alliances – NDA-led alliance with BJP, JD (U), Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustan Awam Morcha and RJD-led Mahagathbandhan have both between 32 and 34 percent of committed vote base. Nitish Kumar enjoys loyal support from non-Muslim Extremely Backward Classes while BJP has committed support amongst upper caste blocs – Brahmins, Rajputs, Kshatriyas, and Bhumihars. Recently, it has broadened its outreach to non-Yadav OBCs and EBCs by appointing leaders from these groups. Together with Paswan’s and Manjhi’s vote base, the NDA sits pretty at around 32% of committed voters. While RJD-led alliance enjoys loyal support from major chunks from Muslims and Yadav which together makes for 30%. Adding to it the Congress support base amongst some amongst upper caste, OBC sub-groups and urban voters the Mahagathbandhan also borders around the 32% of loyal voters.
That leaves around 6 to 8 percentage votes needed to go past the goal post.
New party in the ring – Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj Party. In Bihar’s political pool, no wildcard entry could ever create any ripple. So, it is likely to be a non-starter.
In my opinion, the race is tight. It could go either way. A marginal shift in loyalties, which way the 52 constituencies which went down to wire in the2020 elections will vote, and who has been preferred by the majority of women voters will be the determining factor.
Unless
There is simmering anger among the people of Bihar for their state being left behind on the development curve while UP, MP and Rajasthan which were once clubbed with Bihar as BIMARU (backward) states have broken the club and have made significant progress in economic, industrial, and human development index. All three governed by BJP.
If that factor plays out, NDA could win a thumping majority with BJP emerging as single largest party in alliance. Likely? Wait until November 14
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