As I write this, Gujarat is voting in the first
phase of assembly elections. Pre-poll surveys predict BJP securing simple
majority with fewer seats than what they secured in the last assembly
election. The pollsters are more scientific
in their approach to surveys and in most cases not aligned to any political
party. That fact lends more credibility to
their analysis than politicians who would naturally be exaggerating in their
projections, particularly when talking to media and public. They can’t be expected to be seen to be
conceding grounds in public discourses. That apart, the pollsters often don’t see
undercurrent of a wave in favour of a particular party, as in the case of the
2014 General Election. No pre-poll
survey suggested a landslide for the BJP in UP (the northern state of India)
although all predicted close to majority and in some survey majority seats for
BJP.
The case of Gujarat this time is unique; the
reason why it is attracting so much of attention and importance is obvious. It is going to poll for the first time since
2002 without Modi as Chief Minister of Gujarat. For BJP, It is a question of the prestige of
Prime Minister who hails from Gujarat. A
setback in Gujarat for BJP, the party leaders fear, would dent PM Modi’s image
nationally. For Congress, this election
is a chance to wrest power from BJP after 22 years.
The BJP captured power in Gujarat in 1995,
largely due to a brilliant election management by Lal Krishna Advani, then at the
apogee of his political career and at the helm the BJP power structure. In fact the ascendency of BJP started with the
winning of the Gujarat assembly election in 1995. It followed the BJP heading a short-lived coalition
government at the Centre in 1996 and again formed a coalition government in
1999 which lasted a full-term; it was a signal of the arrival of BJP on
national scene and breaching Congress hegemony to power at the Centre. This
credit undoubtedly goes to Lal Krishna Advani and political acumen of Vajpayee.
The BJP win in Gujarat in 1995 was also due to complacency on part Congress who
had taken Gujarat for granted as their fiefdom for ever. Gujarat was always a
progressive state with entrepreneurial spirit of its people. The State made progress on several
developmental parameters even prior to 1995 but Congress never made any attempt
to take electoral advantage of it because it never thought any other party would
ever be able to take control of the State from it, least of all the BJP. It was
a grievous mistake to take status quo for granted in electoral politics. It is still and will continue to pay heavily
for this mistake in Gujarat.
On the contrary, Modi consolidated his position
and that of the BJP since 2002 by continuously offering vision for development
for Gujarat and talking and projecting only “development” in spite of vitriolic
campaigns from Congress, media and all the sundries against him for communal
riots of 2002. He successfully showcased
development of Gujarat under him, projected him as a reformer and a business
friendly leader, and created a narrative of “Gujarat Model,” on which he finally
rode to become PM. The great political thinker as he is, he took full advantage
of the Congress’s failure to demonstrate development under its rule prior to
1995. Subsequently, their leaders started
talking about their achievements in Gujarat and that what Modi was doing was just
continuity of what they had accomplished.
But it was too late and taken as an after-thought.
This is not to say that under Modi as CM of
Gujarat, he did nothing new. He launched
many new initiatives to put Gujarat on the national and international conscious
as a state to do business with and as a touristic destination. He made revolutionary changes in the
management and operation of power generation and distribution, Save Girl Child
Campaign, Nirnal Gujarat, Vibrant Gujarat and many more people and business
oriented initiatives. But the point I am
making is that Modi as CM was rightly vociferous in projecting
development of Gujarat under him and the BJP, where Congress woefully failed.
But the 2017 election is different and unique. Modi left Gujarat to become PM in 2014. Anandiben became CM of Gujarat followed by current
Chief Minister Vijay Rupani. Rupani has
failed to get universal acceptance of Gujarat people. Nor has he been able to make any mark as an
able administrator. His inning so far as
Chief Minister of Gujarat was like a night watchman in Cricket. His management of Patidar uprising has been
abysmal, conceding ground to its leader Hardik Patel and other OBC and
Dalit leaders who have hogging headlines
making the BJP nervous. Congress jumped
in to their wagon promising something which would be impossible to fulfil. The Patidar community is not fool to not
understand that.
The BJP have nothing new to offer on “Vikas”
(development) agenda because it is given as far as Gujarat is concerned. The Congress has no alternate model of “Vikas”
to go to people of Gujarat with. In a
bipolar poll when both parties have nothing concrete to drive their agenda on,
they naturally go down rhetoric way – bring in religion (we saw that in an
unprecedented run to temple by leaders of both the parties), raise stink (we
saw that in abuses hurled at each other) and use selective reference to history
to present distorted views to suit their interest.
Up to a point, it was looking difficult to save
its wicket for BJP. But then Congress
offered help to BJP on the plate by committing one gaffe after the other.
First mistake by Congress is its misplaced
calculation that it has stitched an unassailable alliance with three young leaders representing their communities and buoyed by crowd they attract at their rallies.
Unmindful of the fact that crowd at rallies don’t always translate into
vote.
Second, their leaders started
using abusive language for the PM, giving him opportunity to stir up “Gujarat
Asmita” (Pride of Gujarat) emotion. Rahul
Gandhi started asking questions on human development index under the BJP rule in the last
22 years, the strategy that was a non-starter from the beginning because such
questions only suggest that there at least was some development. No society is a perfect society in terms of
all parameters in human development index, even in the most developed
nations. So such questions did not
create any appeal because development was given and acknowledged by people in
general.
Congress which started with a possibility of
breaking the 22-year rule by BJP because of simmering discontent has once again
lost ground because of its own stupid actions and poor electoral management. It could not build on anger against demonetisation and GST.
in spite of above mistakes by Congress, if the entire election campaign strategy and
management had not been spearheaded by Modi and Amit Shah, if the Congress had
not indulged in insulting Modi, the BJP might have suffered setback but that
not being the case, and with its very strong grassroots cadre base and
efficient booth management, the BJP is once again forming the government in
Gujarat. It may lose some seats and
Congress would show that as their success to save his newly anointed President.
No comments:
Post a Comment