Saturday, December 9, 2017

Gujarat Reality Check: Beyond rambunctious shrill campaigns

As I write this, Gujarat is voting in the first phase of assembly elections.  Pre-poll surveys predict BJP securing simple majority with fewer seats than what they secured in the last assembly election.  The pollsters are more scientific in their approach to surveys and in most cases not aligned to any political party.  That fact lends more credibility to their analysis than politicians who would naturally be exaggerating in their projections, particularly when talking to media and public.  They can’t be expected to be seen to be conceding grounds in public discourses.   That apart, the pollsters often don’t see undercurrent of a wave in favour of a particular party, as in the case of the 2014 General Election.  No pre-poll survey suggested a landslide for the BJP in UP (the northern state of India) although all predicted close to majority and in some survey majority seats for BJP. 

The case of Gujarat this time is unique; the reason why it is attracting so much of attention and importance is obvious.  It is going to poll for the first time since 2002 without Modi as Chief Minister of Gujarat.  For BJP, It is a question of the prestige of Prime Minister who hails from Gujarat.  A setback in Gujarat for BJP, the party leaders fear, would dent PM Modi’s image nationally.  For Congress, this election is a chance to wrest power from BJP after 22 years.
       
The BJP captured power in Gujarat in 1995, largely due to a brilliant election management by Lal Krishna Advani, then at the apogee of his political career and at the helm the BJP power structure.  In fact the ascendency of BJP started with the winning of the Gujarat assembly election in 1995.  It followed the BJP heading a short-lived coalition government at the Centre in 1996 and again formed a coalition government in 1999 which lasted a full-term; it was a signal of the arrival of BJP on national scene and breaching Congress hegemony to power at the Centre. This credit undoubtedly goes to Lal Krishna Advani and political acumen of Vajpayee. The BJP win in Gujarat in 1995 was also due to complacency on part Congress who had taken Gujarat for granted as their fiefdom for ever. Gujarat was always a progressive state with entrepreneurial spirit of its people.  The State made progress on several developmental parameters even prior to 1995 but Congress never made any attempt to take electoral advantage of it because it never thought any other party would ever be able to take control of the State from it, least of all the BJP. It was a grievous mistake to take status quo for granted in electoral politics.  It is still and will continue to pay heavily for this mistake in Gujarat.

On the contrary, Modi consolidated his position and that of the BJP since 2002 by continuously offering vision for development for Gujarat and talking and projecting only “development” in spite of vitriolic campaigns from Congress, media and all the sundries against him for communal riots of 2002.  He successfully showcased development of Gujarat under him, projected him as a reformer and a business friendly leader, and created a narrative of “Gujarat Model,” on which he finally rode to become PM. The great political thinker as he is, he took full advantage of the Congress’s failure to demonstrate development under its rule prior to 1995.  Subsequently, their leaders started talking about their achievements in Gujarat and that what Modi was doing was just continuity of what they had accomplished.  But it was too late and taken as an after-thought.   
   
This is not to say that under Modi as CM of Gujarat, he did nothing new.  He launched many new initiatives to put Gujarat on the national and international conscious as a state to do business with and as a touristic destination.  He made revolutionary changes in the management and operation of power generation and distribution, Save Girl Child Campaign, Nirnal Gujarat, Vibrant Gujarat and many more people and business oriented initiatives.  But the point I am making is   that Modi as CM was rightly vociferous in projecting development of Gujarat under him and the BJP, where Congress woefully failed.

But the 2017 election is different and unique.  Modi left Gujarat to become PM in 2014.  Anandiben became CM of Gujarat followed by current Chief Minister Vijay Rupani.  Rupani has failed to get universal acceptance of Gujarat people.  Nor has he been able to make any mark as an able administrator.  His inning so far as Chief Minister of Gujarat was like a night watchman in Cricket.  His management of Patidar uprising has been abysmal, conceding ground to its leader Hardik Patel and other OBC and Dalit  leaders who have hogging headlines making the BJP nervous.  Congress jumped in to their wagon promising something which would be impossible to fulfil.  The Patidar community is not fool to not understand that.

The BJP have nothing new to offer on “Vikas” (development) agenda because it is given as far as Gujarat is concerned.  The Congress has no alternate model of “Vikas” to go to people of Gujarat with.  In a bipolar poll when both parties have nothing concrete to drive their agenda on, they naturally go down rhetoric way – bring in religion (we saw that in an unprecedented run to temple by leaders of both the parties), raise stink (we saw that in abuses hurled at each other) and use selective reference to history to present distorted views to suit their interest.

Up to a point, it was looking difficult to save its wicket for BJP.  But then Congress offered help to BJP on the plate by committing one gaffe after the other. 

First mistake by Congress is its misplaced calculation that it has stitched an unassailable alliance with three young leaders representing their communities and buoyed by crowd they attract at their rallies.  Unmindful of the fact that crowd at rallies don’t always translate into vote.  

Second, their leaders started using abusive language for the PM, giving him opportunity to stir up “Gujarat Asmita” (Pride of Gujarat) emotion.  Rahul Gandhi started asking questions on human development index under the BJP rule in the last 22 years, the strategy that was a non-starter from the beginning because such questions only suggest that there at least was some development.  No society is a perfect society in terms of all parameters in human development index, even in the most developed nations.  So such questions did not create any appeal because development was given and acknowledged by people in general. 

Congress which started with a possibility of breaking the 22-year rule by BJP because of simmering discontent has once again lost ground because of its own stupid actions and poor electoral management. It could not build on anger against demonetisation and GST.

in spite of above mistakes by Congress, if the entire election campaign strategy and management had not been spearheaded by Modi and Amit Shah, if the Congress had not indulged in insulting Modi, the BJP might have suffered setback but that not being the case, and with its very strong grassroots cadre base and efficient booth management, the BJP is once again forming the government in Gujarat.  It may lose some seats and Congress would show that as their success to save his newly anointed President.

Beyond rambunctious campaign, I hear that happening loud and clear.  I place the BJP between 95-100 seats, still beyond a majority mark.

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