POTUS Elections 2012 - Beginning of the Great Race

The US presidential election build up has started. President Obama will run for the second term; there is no challenge to him. Four Republican candidates have thrown in their hats for the race to the White House. The Primaries and Caucuses that will decide who will emerge has the candidate to run for the White House against the incumbent Obama are underway. It is too early still to put your bet on which of the four Republican aspirants will win the nominations. But early indications suggest Mitt Romeny, former Massachusetts governor, as the front runner closely followed by Newt Gingrich. The race has reached Nevada which was conquered, as expected, by Mitt Romney. He had won that in 2008 too before he withdrew from the race. The trend appears in favor of Mitt Romney and it is only the matter of few more primaries before all others in the race withdrawing. Sooner that happens, better for the Republicans who would like to begin mounting presidential campaign sooner than the later. I think the Republicans might not have to wait until "Super Tuesday" in March and Mitt Romeny will have stolen the march by then.

Digressing a bit, but a recent development is worth a mention here in the context of presidential elections. As America is preparing for the 2012 November POTUS elections, Hillary Clinton has announced her plan to step down as Secretary of State and take a break for a while. This is a significant announcement and those watching American politics closely, it is akin to announcing her candidature for 2016 presidential elections. Her ambitions were clear when she ran for the nomination in 2008. She could not have done the same this time as Obama is running for the second term. In 2016, Obama would have completed the maximum terms a US President can have as per the constitution. The field will be open for her. By continuing in the administration, she would not get enough time to prepare for the race for the White House in 2016. So come 2016 and you might have Hillary Clinton running for the presidency and, who knows, in another first, she might be the first woman president of the United States of America.

As for 2012, it is too early to tell whether Obama or a Republican (mostly Mitt Romney) will be occupying the Oval office for next four years. A lot can change from now until the day of the election. For instance, if the economy improves or stays where it is now before November, Obama will have a clear edge over his Republican opponent; but if it deteriorates, it will be a huge set back for Obama. People may then go in for change.

Advantage Obama? Well, his stock is rising boosted by rising jobs. His approval rate has touched 50% and is in double digit advantage over his rivals. His success in elimination of Bin Laden whom every American hated the most will work in his favor. Withdrawal of troops from Iraq and his commitment to withdraw from Afghanistan have been positively received by Americans who have become extremely wary of military interventions and have come to link America's struggling economy with such interventions. The American voters would rather endorse Obama again to ensure the continuity of the process of withdrawal than a new administration which might slow down the process of withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. These factors coupled with his well-oiled political machinery puts Obama a level higher at this point of time against his rival.

But then in politics, as proverb goes, even a week is a long time. Here we have nine months to go before the voters hit the polling booths. Also, in American politics, money matters. It is here that Obama's funding advantage is eroding fast. Wealthy donors are boosting Republican campaign and proliferation of Super-Pacs following the Supreme Court decision allowing them to take unlimited donations and spend them at anytime before the polling day as long as they do not co-ordinate with the candidates are leveling playing fields. We must bear in mind that it was the funding advantage with wealthy donors that propelled Obama into the White House in 2008. The recent trends suggest that Republicans are eroding that funding advantage Obama enjoyed. A Super-Pac backing Mitt Romeny, the frontrunner for the 2012 nomination, raised, by the end of 2011, $51 million with $7 million from a single Texas businessman Harold Simmons as against $4.4 million raised by a Super-pac supporting Obama.

The recent trends also suggests that with the likelihood that neither candidate will accept public funding - which would limit their spending - the 2012 election will be the most expensive in the history with the total campaign spending expected to top $2bn-$3bn.

While I put Obama ahead at this point of time, the margin of victory will definitely not be the same 365-173 for Obama as in 2008. The number of states which traditionally vote for Republicans but voted for Obama (Nevada-5, New Mexico-5,Colorado-9) in 2008 might go back to their tradition leaving the outcome of the battle for the White House hinge around the Swing states (Indiana-11, Ohio-20, Florida-27, Virginia-13 and North Carolina-15)- all of which were carried by Obama in 2008. I will not be surprised if the result throws uncanny similarity with the 2000 elections when Al Gore garnered more popular votes but still lost because he had lesser number of Electoral College votes- the deciding factor in US presidential elections - in his kitty than George W. Bush. President Obama will rue that situation because even in the event of his defeat, he is likely to get more popular votes. But today, I give Obama greater chances of winning the second term.

I will have to watch for who finally gets the Republican nomination, his campaign and other development before revising my prediction.

Will come back. Watch this space.