That is the question we must ask. A resilient and robust economy is more powerful a deterrent than any fission or fusion bomb in today’s integrated world where all nations, big and small, are seeking to expand their trade beyond their boundaries. Look around and there are examples galore to validate the claim. Look at China. Where China stands today is not because of its military might but the economic powerhouse it became post 1979 when it liberalized its economic policy and opened it to the world. And it did so as part of larger strategy to become a major power in Asia. It junked its avowed dislike for anything western, particularly American, in pursuit to achieve the status of economic powerhouse. Now it can get away with all the misdeeds of still politically closed and authoritarian country because of its economic power rather than the number of atom bombs in its possession. Just ponder why the Tibet issue no longer brings international pressure to bear on China and America does not want to displease China by hosting Dalai Lama as a White House guest, even as a spiritual leader. The reason is purely economic. Japan has always been a major military power but yet suffered humiliating military defeat at the hands of Americans and unspeakable horror and mutilation was brought about by American “Little Boy” and Fat Man.” It was able to rise again and be counted among the developed nations because of the single minded pursuit of achieving economic excellence and not because of the military might it possessed. It soon became the world’s largest manufacturer and exporter of electronics and automobiles. I am sure America had always been secretly repentant ever since it dropped those two bombs on Japan but the public expression of apology came not because of Japan’s military power but because of the economic status and importance it acquired post Nagasaki and Hiroshima. Japan, in the process of economic building, also chose to forget the past. Today both America and Japan are very close and trusted allies. Israel is not as strong an economy as China and Japan but its people, Jews, have entrenched them so far and deep in American politics and business that they have become a powerful economic force America ill afford to ignore. If it were not to be America’s explicit support, both financial and military, it would have been extremely difficult for Israel to hold on to its position in the Israel-Palestine conflict. On the other hand, the nations which did not take economy building seriously have been struggling badly having to rely on foreign aids for survival. Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sudan; you can go on counting. As for Pakistan, Sir Hilary Synnott of London’s International Strategic Studies who served as British high commissioner in Islamabad and the author of Transforming Pakistan: Ways Out of Instability has opined that a sustained economic growth would help Pakistan in dealing with simultaneous crisis – security, political and economic.
The case I am tying to make is for India, particularly in the background of the current raging controversies raising doubts over the claimed success of 1998 nuclear tests, the rising crescendo in favor of conducting further nuclear tests to build credible deterrence and daily reports in the media of regular Chinese incursions into Indian territories. We also are aware that China is building its strategic assets in countries around India as well as increasing steadily its presence in the Indian Ocean, and so on and so forth. The continuous media reports on these subjects seem to have created panic among all sections in the Indian establishment and building up pressure on the government to act to upgrade nuclear deterrence capabilities even if it required India to conduct further nuclear tests and in doing so risk inviting all kind of sanctions against it. If India tests again, it will be adopting a wrong strategy that will backfire and thereby causing more damage to its international standing than solving any one of the problems it is facing today; Pakistan is reportedly enhancing its nuclear capabilities, the terrorist groups are launching attacks in India are being accorded safe heaven in Pakistan and often its security agency ISI’s logistical and financial support, there is anarchy in Afghanistan and threat of Taliban wresting control again is eminent and China’s increasingly aggressive posture towards India in recent months is a matter of grave concern. All these above factors are disturbing tranquility and don’t augur well for the long-tem well being of India’s economy. How to address these problems emanating from India’s neighborhood?
Answer to that is certainly not by building more nuclear bombs. It is no secret that India always had atomic bombs for a long time and everyone knew about that. But Kargil and the 26/11 Mumbai and countless other terror attacks masterminded from Pakistan still took place, and so did numerous incursions by China. It would still continue to happen even if we add to the number and lethality of the nuclear bombs. Are we ever going to be able to use them? Even if we do, mutual destruction and sufferings for generations is a certain eventuality as well as escalated tension which would be a death blow to our economy. We will be playing straight into the hands of those who want to stall India’s impressive economic progress which is seen as a greater threat by certain neighboring countries and not our nuclear power. So don’t buy the argument of the need to develop credible nuclear deterrence and all that stuff. Does that mean India should continue to suffer? No, certainly not. India’s response should be more intelligent and contemporary, one that would have the element of “shock and awe.” What would that kind of response be?
The answer lies hidden in what I have argued in the first paragraph - Economy and America.
Fortunately for India, it has a strong and resilient economy and has been acknowledged as emerging economic power. However, security situation and reluctance to introduce some bold but necessary reforms is holding Indian economy back from realizing its greater potential. The government must work towards liberalizing investment norms and introduce labor law reforms quickly. Simultaneously, India must work to develop a close relationship with America. Recently, the bilateral relationship with America has been a positive story. Both have been collaborating and cooperating in various fields. The result of our improved relation with America is there for all to see. It is US pressure and FBI collaboration (and not India’s nuclear bombs) into the 26/11 Mumbai attacks which compelled Pakistan to cooperate with India and admit that Ajmal Kasab, one of the 26/11 perpetrators who was the only one captured alive, was a Pakistani national. It will be naïve to think that our pressure worked; yes our diplomatic maneuvers did prompt the US to ask Pakistan to reign in extremist elements operating against India from Pakistan. So we must abandon our outdated foreign policy to the one that is more accommodative to the United States of America. It will require lot of courage and shaping of favorable public opinion to do so. India can learn how to do it from Japan. How can you explain that a country which was the first, and only, victim of nuclear holocaust is now having very close ties with the very perpetrator of that holocaust, America! Even it has permitted America to have their naval bases on its shores! And yet Japanese are okay with that because they can see that it is its relationship with America which is keeping China and North Korea in complete check.
In the September 21 op-ed in Times of India, Mr. Dileep Padgoankar, an eminent expert on international relations, has written about a conference in Seoul on present and future opportunities and challenges for Japan and South Korea in their relationship with China in which he quoted a senior Japanese editor as saying: “When Japan takes actions either together with the US or with US backing, China tends to listen to what Japan has to say. If Japan does not have that support, China is unlikely to listen to it.” In spite of China persuading both Japan and South Korea to keep distance from the United States, they refuse to do so. The same holds true for India with respect to getting Pakistan to act against terrorist groups from Pakistan carrying out attacks in India. And don’t forget that it was the fear of US’s (and not Russia’s) eminent intervention in support of India against the Chinese aggression in 1962 that compelled China to call for a unilateral ceasefire and pull back. Like it or not, we must accept it as the fact of life that America is the most powerful nation in the world and is the only country capable of influencing international events. We have often acknowledged that India being the largest and the United States being the oldest democracies make both nations natural allies. We must act in a manner to take that notion from just acknowledgement to reality. President Obama has declared to work towards a world free of nuclear weapons as among his top priority. Declare unilaterally that India is willing to go all the way for President Obama to realize a nuclear free world, including signing Non-Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Even I would recommend that India should offer its nuclear arsenal in the safe custody of the United States and even offer them bases on Indian soil under a guarantee of latter’s protective umbrella and territorial integrity and status quo with respect to Kashmir and other territorial disputes with our neighbors. This move will shock the world and will change geopolitical dynamics upside down. Some would slam me for suggesting India should surrender itself to America. I would say to them that did Japan or South Korea or the UK surrendered to the US? They acted smartly. And India- America relationship is not going to be one way like Pakistan-America relationship, where Pakistan is a perennial recipient of US aids. It will be both ways. A stable and secured India has huge potential market on offer for US commercial interests, and America knows this fact well. And please don’t bring in Iran and Palestine and Russia. They have never helped our cause in anyway to be so emotional about it. Plus signing CTBT and NPT is an appropriate thing to do for India given the A. Q. Khan revelation of the Pakistani establishment’s complicity in the nuclear proliferation of the worst kind. So shun those shibboleths and move forward and act smart. A close ties with America is not going to harm India in anyway. But advantages are many. America’s reliance on Pakistan for their war in Afghanistan would completely diminish enabling America to take tough stand against Pakistan to neutralize all kind of “jihadi” groups threatening the region’s and world’s stability. It will also put China on the defensive. America and other nations will readily help India with attaining its goal set for civil nuclear power. Our legitimate quest for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council will be realized. With the help of America, we will be able to get the best of technology and infrastructure to deal with terrorism. And more importantly, India will be able to dedicate its time, energy and resources with greater intensity on its economy, education, healthcare, and other internal challenges.
This is the only way out of the dangers that we face from around us in the region and become the economic power that we have aspired to be.
The case I am tying to make is for India, particularly in the background of the current raging controversies raising doubts over the claimed success of 1998 nuclear tests, the rising crescendo in favor of conducting further nuclear tests to build credible deterrence and daily reports in the media of regular Chinese incursions into Indian territories. We also are aware that China is building its strategic assets in countries around India as well as increasing steadily its presence in the Indian Ocean, and so on and so forth. The continuous media reports on these subjects seem to have created panic among all sections in the Indian establishment and building up pressure on the government to act to upgrade nuclear deterrence capabilities even if it required India to conduct further nuclear tests and in doing so risk inviting all kind of sanctions against it. If India tests again, it will be adopting a wrong strategy that will backfire and thereby causing more damage to its international standing than solving any one of the problems it is facing today; Pakistan is reportedly enhancing its nuclear capabilities, the terrorist groups are launching attacks in India are being accorded safe heaven in Pakistan and often its security agency ISI’s logistical and financial support, there is anarchy in Afghanistan and threat of Taliban wresting control again is eminent and China’s increasingly aggressive posture towards India in recent months is a matter of grave concern. All these above factors are disturbing tranquility and don’t augur well for the long-tem well being of India’s economy. How to address these problems emanating from India’s neighborhood?
Answer to that is certainly not by building more nuclear bombs. It is no secret that India always had atomic bombs for a long time and everyone knew about that. But Kargil and the 26/11 Mumbai and countless other terror attacks masterminded from Pakistan still took place, and so did numerous incursions by China. It would still continue to happen even if we add to the number and lethality of the nuclear bombs. Are we ever going to be able to use them? Even if we do, mutual destruction and sufferings for generations is a certain eventuality as well as escalated tension which would be a death blow to our economy. We will be playing straight into the hands of those who want to stall India’s impressive economic progress which is seen as a greater threat by certain neighboring countries and not our nuclear power. So don’t buy the argument of the need to develop credible nuclear deterrence and all that stuff. Does that mean India should continue to suffer? No, certainly not. India’s response should be more intelligent and contemporary, one that would have the element of “shock and awe.” What would that kind of response be?
The answer lies hidden in what I have argued in the first paragraph - Economy and America.
Fortunately for India, it has a strong and resilient economy and has been acknowledged as emerging economic power. However, security situation and reluctance to introduce some bold but necessary reforms is holding Indian economy back from realizing its greater potential. The government must work towards liberalizing investment norms and introduce labor law reforms quickly. Simultaneously, India must work to develop a close relationship with America. Recently, the bilateral relationship with America has been a positive story. Both have been collaborating and cooperating in various fields. The result of our improved relation with America is there for all to see. It is US pressure and FBI collaboration (and not India’s nuclear bombs) into the 26/11 Mumbai attacks which compelled Pakistan to cooperate with India and admit that Ajmal Kasab, one of the 26/11 perpetrators who was the only one captured alive, was a Pakistani national. It will be naïve to think that our pressure worked; yes our diplomatic maneuvers did prompt the US to ask Pakistan to reign in extremist elements operating against India from Pakistan. So we must abandon our outdated foreign policy to the one that is more accommodative to the United States of America. It will require lot of courage and shaping of favorable public opinion to do so. India can learn how to do it from Japan. How can you explain that a country which was the first, and only, victim of nuclear holocaust is now having very close ties with the very perpetrator of that holocaust, America! Even it has permitted America to have their naval bases on its shores! And yet Japanese are okay with that because they can see that it is its relationship with America which is keeping China and North Korea in complete check.
In the September 21 op-ed in Times of India, Mr. Dileep Padgoankar, an eminent expert on international relations, has written about a conference in Seoul on present and future opportunities and challenges for Japan and South Korea in their relationship with China in which he quoted a senior Japanese editor as saying: “When Japan takes actions either together with the US or with US backing, China tends to listen to what Japan has to say. If Japan does not have that support, China is unlikely to listen to it.” In spite of China persuading both Japan and South Korea to keep distance from the United States, they refuse to do so. The same holds true for India with respect to getting Pakistan to act against terrorist groups from Pakistan carrying out attacks in India. And don’t forget that it was the fear of US’s (and not Russia’s) eminent intervention in support of India against the Chinese aggression in 1962 that compelled China to call for a unilateral ceasefire and pull back. Like it or not, we must accept it as the fact of life that America is the most powerful nation in the world and is the only country capable of influencing international events. We have often acknowledged that India being the largest and the United States being the oldest democracies make both nations natural allies. We must act in a manner to take that notion from just acknowledgement to reality. President Obama has declared to work towards a world free of nuclear weapons as among his top priority. Declare unilaterally that India is willing to go all the way for President Obama to realize a nuclear free world, including signing Non-Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). Even I would recommend that India should offer its nuclear arsenal in the safe custody of the United States and even offer them bases on Indian soil under a guarantee of latter’s protective umbrella and territorial integrity and status quo with respect to Kashmir and other territorial disputes with our neighbors. This move will shock the world and will change geopolitical dynamics upside down. Some would slam me for suggesting India should surrender itself to America. I would say to them that did Japan or South Korea or the UK surrendered to the US? They acted smartly. And India- America relationship is not going to be one way like Pakistan-America relationship, where Pakistan is a perennial recipient of US aids. It will be both ways. A stable and secured India has huge potential market on offer for US commercial interests, and America knows this fact well. And please don’t bring in Iran and Palestine and Russia. They have never helped our cause in anyway to be so emotional about it. Plus signing CTBT and NPT is an appropriate thing to do for India given the A. Q. Khan revelation of the Pakistani establishment’s complicity in the nuclear proliferation of the worst kind. So shun those shibboleths and move forward and act smart. A close ties with America is not going to harm India in anyway. But advantages are many. America’s reliance on Pakistan for their war in Afghanistan would completely diminish enabling America to take tough stand against Pakistan to neutralize all kind of “jihadi” groups threatening the region’s and world’s stability. It will also put China on the defensive. America and other nations will readily help India with attaining its goal set for civil nuclear power. Our legitimate quest for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council will be realized. With the help of America, we will be able to get the best of technology and infrastructure to deal with terrorism. And more importantly, India will be able to dedicate its time, energy and resources with greater intensity on its economy, education, healthcare, and other internal challenges.
This is the only way out of the dangers that we face from around us in the region and become the economic power that we have aspired to be.
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