I am still willing to put my money on Republican nominee John McCain to be the 44th president of the United States of America, not despite, but because of his selection of a relatively unknown Sarah Palin, a young, first-term governor of Alaska, as his running mate. Her elected office experience includes City Council member (1992-96) and mayor (1996-2002) of Wasilla, Alaska, and governor of Alaska since 2006. In terms of national politics, this kind of experience is very insignificant, particularly for a would-be vice president of the most powerful nation. Add to it, the anti-incumbency factor and growing unpopularity of President Bush, you would think my money gone down the drain, for sure.
But after deliberating on implications of Sarah Palin as the running mate, knowing what works and what doesn’t with American voters and the changed dynamics that determine their preferences, I have come to the conclusion that her selection is a political master piece that would play a big role combined with aforesaid factors in propelling McCain to the Oval Office. Here is why.
Sarah Palin is the first Republican woman to have been nominated for vice president and only second woman to have been so nominated on a major party ticket after Democrat Geraldine Ferraro in 1984. The 2008 presidential election acquired a unique dimension ever since among the Democratic hopefuls included a woman and an African-American. The Democratic primaries became one of the most intensely fought as well as the longest one before a presumptive candidate emerged. It was a fight between the two would-be “firsts.” The prospect of either a female or an African-American making to the top of the ticket for the first time in the U.S. history generated tremendous interest not only in America but around the world. In comparison, the Republican primaries were dull affairs, did not attract as much of the world’s press attention because as early as March, John McCain had already emerged as a presumptive Republican presidential candidate. In addition to that a mammoth crowd gathered in Berlin to hear Barack Obama and the Democratic national convention widely heralded as a huge success in presenting a unified party to American voters. However, in spite of a call of solidarity at the Democratic convention by Hillary Clinton, there was a palpable sense of disappointment among her supporters. Gov. Sarah Palin’s choice was probably aimed at wooing away those disenchanted Hillary’s supporters; and it may work for McCain. After all, Hillary had garnered 18 million votes in primaries. Should even a small percentage of that chunk vote for McCain because of Sarah Palin, a woman, being his running mate, it could be a difference between defeat and victory. Also, the choice infused much-wanted new lease of life in the Republican campaign and gave the unique feature to it that was missing; the prospect of the first woman incumbent as vice president of the United States of America. The media swooped in immediately with sustained debates giving much-desired space to the Republican camp. It was nothing sort of a coup executed by McCain, and if he, his running mate and his campaign managers are able to sustain the momentum, it would be McCain all the way to the White House!
Some would argue that there are Republicans who don’t still approve of McCain because of his well-known compromising attitude on many of the social issues. But, in spite of that, they are not likely to vote against McCain or abstain simply because having a Republican administration in the office would still mean better chances for them for exerting their influence. Here again, Sarah Palin will more than balance McCain’s liberal attitude with her traditional, conservative image.
American voters are not as informed as we tend to believe they are. As a result, they are equally vulnerable to get swayed by the campaign rhetoric. The good example in support of this observation is the fact that the polls showing Barak Obama leading by several points immediately after the Democratic Convention is now showing him trailing after much hype generated over McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin’s as his running mate. In the 2004 presidential election, John Kerry was leading President Bush in all exit polls but Bush still won. The polls will go on swinging from one way to the other and one should not read too much into them. Americans have a particular image about their presidents in their mind, a kind of indelible image. According to this image, their president should be one who exudes assertive personality befitting the head of the most powerful nation in the world. Both Barack Obama and John McCain fit the bill on this count. However, post 9/11, Americans have become increasingly obsessive to national security and they want to ensure their president has the resolve and experience dealing with national security issues. Here, McCain will make a kill. He is far more experience in terms of Washington and international politics. Add to it the fact that he is a war hero who endured years of torture as a prisoner of war during the Vietnam War. He is someone whose ability to be the Commander-in-Chief Americans will readily be trusted by Americans, while still harboring question mark for Barak Obama. When they will walk into the polling stations on November 4, these two factors will drive most of them to put a seal of approval for John McCain. All the other concerns like sagging economy, energy security, healthcare, controversial social issues, education, and so on so forth, will become subordinate to the concern about national security and the single-minded pursuit of their image of a president who should have an authoritative persona and have a Resume of strong experience and credential as the Commander-in-Chief, period. Let Michael Moore and his ilk mock about him jokingly or let Oprah Winfrey lend her and her show's popularity to Barak Obama, John McCain will joyfully ride over all that and land in the White House and have the last laugh.
Want to bet with me on McCain? Believe me, it is a sure win bet.
To end with a point to ponder:
It may not have any bearing on the final outcome of the 2008 presidential elections, but it is worth noting that from the 18th President Ulysses Grant, Americans have voted 17 Republicans to the office out of 26 presidents they have elected since then, a staggering 65 percent of times. To those of you who wonder why I have chosen the timeline from the 18th president, it is because that election marked the beginning of the presidential elections being a battle between two major existing parties, Democratic and Republican.
But after deliberating on implications of Sarah Palin as the running mate, knowing what works and what doesn’t with American voters and the changed dynamics that determine their preferences, I have come to the conclusion that her selection is a political master piece that would play a big role combined with aforesaid factors in propelling McCain to the Oval Office. Here is why.
Sarah Palin is the first Republican woman to have been nominated for vice president and only second woman to have been so nominated on a major party ticket after Democrat Geraldine Ferraro in 1984. The 2008 presidential election acquired a unique dimension ever since among the Democratic hopefuls included a woman and an African-American. The Democratic primaries became one of the most intensely fought as well as the longest one before a presumptive candidate emerged. It was a fight between the two would-be “firsts.” The prospect of either a female or an African-American making to the top of the ticket for the first time in the U.S. history generated tremendous interest not only in America but around the world. In comparison, the Republican primaries were dull affairs, did not attract as much of the world’s press attention because as early as March, John McCain had already emerged as a presumptive Republican presidential candidate. In addition to that a mammoth crowd gathered in Berlin to hear Barack Obama and the Democratic national convention widely heralded as a huge success in presenting a unified party to American voters. However, in spite of a call of solidarity at the Democratic convention by Hillary Clinton, there was a palpable sense of disappointment among her supporters. Gov. Sarah Palin’s choice was probably aimed at wooing away those disenchanted Hillary’s supporters; and it may work for McCain. After all, Hillary had garnered 18 million votes in primaries. Should even a small percentage of that chunk vote for McCain because of Sarah Palin, a woman, being his running mate, it could be a difference between defeat and victory. Also, the choice infused much-wanted new lease of life in the Republican campaign and gave the unique feature to it that was missing; the prospect of the first woman incumbent as vice president of the United States of America. The media swooped in immediately with sustained debates giving much-desired space to the Republican camp. It was nothing sort of a coup executed by McCain, and if he, his running mate and his campaign managers are able to sustain the momentum, it would be McCain all the way to the White House!
Some would argue that there are Republicans who don’t still approve of McCain because of his well-known compromising attitude on many of the social issues. But, in spite of that, they are not likely to vote against McCain or abstain simply because having a Republican administration in the office would still mean better chances for them for exerting their influence. Here again, Sarah Palin will more than balance McCain’s liberal attitude with her traditional, conservative image.
American voters are not as informed as we tend to believe they are. As a result, they are equally vulnerable to get swayed by the campaign rhetoric. The good example in support of this observation is the fact that the polls showing Barak Obama leading by several points immediately after the Democratic Convention is now showing him trailing after much hype generated over McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin’s as his running mate. In the 2004 presidential election, John Kerry was leading President Bush in all exit polls but Bush still won. The polls will go on swinging from one way to the other and one should not read too much into them. Americans have a particular image about their presidents in their mind, a kind of indelible image. According to this image, their president should be one who exudes assertive personality befitting the head of the most powerful nation in the world. Both Barack Obama and John McCain fit the bill on this count. However, post 9/11, Americans have become increasingly obsessive to national security and they want to ensure their president has the resolve and experience dealing with national security issues. Here, McCain will make a kill. He is far more experience in terms of Washington and international politics. Add to it the fact that he is a war hero who endured years of torture as a prisoner of war during the Vietnam War. He is someone whose ability to be the Commander-in-Chief Americans will readily be trusted by Americans, while still harboring question mark for Barak Obama. When they will walk into the polling stations on November 4, these two factors will drive most of them to put a seal of approval for John McCain. All the other concerns like sagging economy, energy security, healthcare, controversial social issues, education, and so on so forth, will become subordinate to the concern about national security and the single-minded pursuit of their image of a president who should have an authoritative persona and have a Resume of strong experience and credential as the Commander-in-Chief, period. Let Michael Moore and his ilk mock about him jokingly or let Oprah Winfrey lend her and her show's popularity to Barak Obama, John McCain will joyfully ride over all that and land in the White House and have the last laugh.
Want to bet with me on McCain? Believe me, it is a sure win bet.
To end with a point to ponder:
It may not have any bearing on the final outcome of the 2008 presidential elections, but it is worth noting that from the 18th President Ulysses Grant, Americans have voted 17 Republicans to the office out of 26 presidents they have elected since then, a staggering 65 percent of times. To those of you who wonder why I have chosen the timeline from the 18th president, it is because that election marked the beginning of the presidential elections being a battle between two major existing parties, Democratic and Republican.
No comments:
Post a Comment