Manifesting a Better Bharat with AI – some thoughts

India today stands at the threshold of a historic transformation, empowered by the strength of its digital revolution. With more than 950 million internet users, the country represents the second-largest online population in the world. Over 95 percent of India’s nearly 665,000 villages are now connected to the internet, ensuring that digital inclusion reaches deep into rural communities and bridges the urban–rural divide. Equally significant is the gender balance of India’s digital landscape, where women comprise nearly 47 percent of total users, making it one of the most inclusive digital ecosystems globally.

The scale of connectivity is matched by unparalleled data consumption and utilization. On average, every smartphone user in India consumes nearly 32 GB of data per month—among the highest levels worldwide. The Unified Payments Interface (UPI), India’s homegrown digital payments backbone, has redefined the future of finance by recording 650 million daily transactions, surpassing Visa’s 639 million daily transactions and establishing itself as the largest real-time payments system in the world. At the same time, India’s digital culture is thriving, with more than 491 million social media users shaping conversations and influencing trends, while the country’s OTT entertainment market, already serving 547 million users, is projected to grow to 650 million active users in the near future.

This vast and ever-expanding digital ecosystem is more than a story of numbers—it is a unique national asset. The depth, diversity, and democratization of datasets being generated in India every day provide the foundation for building artificial intelligence and deep technology solutions at scale. With this unparalleled data advantage, India is poised not only to transform its own economy but also to emerge as a global hub of AI innovation, where technology serves as a multiplier for inclusive growth, productivity, and competitiveness.

As Claude Smadja, former Managing Director of the World Economic Forum, has insightfully remarked, India’s unique superiority in data and big data has placed it at an inflection point, ready to accelerate technological innovation and potentially deliver the world’s next big surprise.

With its massive digital footprint, youthful talent pool, and culture of innovation, India is well positioned to manifest a better Bharat—one where AI and deep tech are harnessed to empower people, strengthen industries, and shape the future of global technology leadership.

With its abundance of data, a tech-savvy talent pool, and a robust startup culture, India is uniquely positioned to leapfrog into the next generation of artificial intelligence and quantum technologies. What is required is not just vision but also an enabling ecosystem—comprising forward-looking policies, sustainable funding channels, and an affordable research and development framework—that can convert this potential into global leadership.

India today stands at a vantage point to offer solutions across every sphere of human activity—economic, political, governance, business, industry, social development, and livelihoods. The Government of India has already taken notable steps in this direction through initiatives such as the National Quantum Mission, India AI Mission 2030 and the launch of AIKosha, an India AI compute platform and other AI initiatives on IndiaAI Mission anniversary to enable India’s AI research and innovation ecosystem. Yet, in the rapidly evolving technology landscape, speed is of the essence. Without swift execution, India risks once again lagging behind, while the rest of the world capitalizes on opportunities born out of technological and data superiority.

To secure its leadership, India must take bold and practical steps As talent is no longer restricted to metro cities,  the strategy should include establishing AI and quantum sandboxes not just in metro cities but also in tier-two cities, creating test-beds where innovators, startups, and academic researchers can experiment, validate, and scale solutions. Equally important is the formulation of adaptive policies that encourage safe and rapid deployment of AI across sectors—from healthcare and agriculture to logistics and manufacturing.

The transition to an AI-driven economy must also be inclusive. That means prioritizing training and reskilling programs, particularly for the MSME sector, which forms the backbone of India’s economy. By equipping entrepreneurs and workers with AI-ready skills, India can ensure that smaller businesses do not get left behind in the technology wave. In parallel, a national awareness campaign must be launched to address widespread fears about AI-related job losses. The narrative should highlight that while AI will automate certain processes, human intervention, creativity, judgment, and emotional intelligence will remain indispensable, and new categories of jobs will emerge in the process.

By combining speed, inclusivity, and innovation, India can convert its digital and data advantage into a defining leadership role in the global AI and quantum era—manifesting a Better Bharat and shaping a better future for the world.

Indian enterprises have made impressive strides in various AI applications rolled out by startups.  These AI startups span across sectors like healthcare, MSME-focused, analytics, finance, Agritech, infrastructure, conversational, entertainment, education, social good, and so on. 

While AI startups milieu is promising, their growth is impeded by high computing costs, inadequate funding, fragmented and inaccessibility of data, lack of a comprehensive AI regulatory framework balancing innovation, ethics, and security, unclear policies on data governance, cross-border data flows and intellectual property, slow adoption among MSMEs, and persistent fears around job losses make AI adoption politically and socially sensitive. Further, the limited digital readiness in smaller enterprises delays scaling of AI solutions beyond large corporates, and Intense competition from established global players adds pressure on Indian startups to innovate rapidly while navigating local ecosystem challenges.

Towards Indigenous Base Models for India

At present, much of India’s AI development rests on foreign base models and digital platforms. This dependency restricts India’s ability to shape the direction of technological innovation in line with its own priorities. The need of the hour is to develop indigenous foundational AI platforms—large-scale systems built and trained with Indian data, designed around local requirements, and governed by national interests.

By owning such foundational capacity, India would not only reduce strategic vulnerabilities but also gain the autonomy to set ethical, economic, and security benchmarks that resonate with its developmental goals. The shift from dependence on imported base models to the creation of “Made in India” foundation models is not merely a technological ambition—it is a strategic, economic, and societal imperative.

For a nation with unparalleled data diversity, a vast digital footprint, and one of the world’s largest pools of digital talent, the natural progression is clear: to shape an AI future designed for Bharat, powered by Bharat, and shared with the world.

India has not yet produced global brands on par with the West, but it is uniquely positioned to give the world AI solutions across sectors—agriculture, healthcare, education, manufacturing, and governance—and to lead the charge into Industry 4.0. By quickly leveraging its data superiority, digital inclusion, and demographic advantage, India can manifest a better Bharat with AI, and in doing so, contribute to building a better world for all.

 

 

From Emerging to Influential: India’s Rise Under Modi

 Eleven years of reforms have reshaped India’s economy and global standing. The next frontier: building a strong, self-reliant military and raising education standards to unlock India’s demographic potential.

Even the most ardent critic of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government will, albeit grudgingly, acknowledge that the last eleven years have witnessed impressive progress across multiple domains. From a country that was once merely pointed out on the map or referenced in discussions as the “second-most populous after China,” India today commands respect as a nation with real clout and a strong, independent voice in the global comity of nations.

This was the purpose Narendra Modi worked towards from the very day he took oath as the 14th Prime Minister of India, on May 26, 2014. Assertive and strategic diplomacy has been one of the defining hallmarks of the Modi government. India today is not merely a participant in global forums—it is helping shape them.

Only those who have had the privilege of knowing and closely interacting with Prime Minister Modi truly understand the depth of his vision—how far into the future he plans, how high he sets his goals, and how tirelessly he works while inspiring and pushing others to achieve those goals. Members of the IMC delegation who met him in January 2012 sensed this first-hand, gaining insight into his forward-looking thinking and his CEO-style approach to governance. His pioneering initiatives in Gujarat—such as the Bus Rapid Transport System, uninterrupted power supply, the transformation of the Sabarmati Riverfront, efficient irrigation systems, and the creation of a global brand for Gujarat—set new benchmarks and made Gujarat a model of development for other states to follow. Similarly, as Prime Minister, elevating India’s global profile was a clear priority for him from the outset, because as an astute leader, he understood that India’s rise on the world stage would be essential for realizing its broader national aspirations—including the ambitious vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047.

The achievements of the Modi government over the past eleven years are there for all to see. It has undertaken several far-reaching reforms—social and economic—many of them truly transformative.

Over the past eleven years, India has witnessed a sharp decline in multidimensional poverty, with over 250 million people lifted out of poverty through targeted schemes and improved last-mile delivery. Welfare delivery was revolutionized by the Direct Benefit Transfer system powered by the Jan Dhan-Aadhaar-Mobile (JAM) trinity, while flagship programs like Ujjwala Yojana empowered women by providing over 90 million free LPG connections. The Swachh Bharat Mission transformed sanitation, taking rural toilet coverage from about 40% in 2014 to near-universal coverage, and Ayushman Bharat has become the world’s largest government-funded health insurance scheme, covering over 500 million people. Under the Housing for All initiative, millions of affordable homes were built, while the ambitious Goods and Services Tax (GST) unified India’s market and simplified taxation.

Landmark reforms like the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code improved ease of doing business and strengthened creditor rights, while Make in India and Production Linked Incentive (PLI) schemes spurred domestic manufacturing and FDI, with particular gains in sectors like electronics, defence, and automobiles. Startup India and Standup India energized India’s entrepreneurial ecosystem, and the Digital India initiative expanded broadband connectivity and mainstreamed digital payments. Infrastructure development surged with record highway construction, airport and rail modernization, and programs like Bharatmala, Sagarmala and UDAN enhancing connectivity. Nearly universal household electrification was achieved under the Saubhagya scheme, and financial inclusion deepened with over 500 million Jan Dhan bank accounts. Labour law reform streamlined 29 laws into 4 simplified codes, and targeted social empowerment schemes advanced women’s welfare, skill development, and strengthened protections for SC/ST communities—together creating a more inclusive and resilient economy. Tap water in every household and roof top solar are initiatives aimed at providing every household access to potable water and providing free electricity to 1 crore households by installing solar panels on their roofs and offering subsidies.

While these achievements and initiatives have been summarized in just two paragraphs, the dedication, resolve, and leadership that made them possible cannot be captured in words. While we must admit India did make steady progress over the past seven decades, including its historic achievement of nuclear status, but the last eleven years have been marked by an accelerated, determined effort to build a stronger, more self-reliant India—an India with the confidence to shape its own destiny and take its rightful place on the global stage, and in space.

Yet, for all this progress, two critical frontiers remain: Raising Education Standards and India’s defence preparedness.

it is critical that India now places even greater focus on strengthening its education system. To truly harness the potential of its young and aspirational population, standards of education must improve across all levels—from primary schooling to higher education and skills training—so that India’s demographic dividend becomes its greatest strength in the decades to come.

Further, as India aspires to play a larger global role, it must complement its economic rise with robust national security capabilities. Defence indigenization is no longer an option; it is a strategic necessity. India must build a self-reliant defence ecosystem capable of equipping and sustaining its military in a complex and volatile geopolitical environment.

Particularly urgent is the need to strengthen the Indian Air Force and Navy—the two arms critical for safeguarding India’s strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific and beyond. In this context, the induction of the advanced version of the indigenous Tejas fighter aircraft should be treated as an absolute national priority. The Tejas program, while a symbol of India’s engineering and technological ambition, has faced significant delays, and these must now be overcome decisively. A strong, capable air force equipped with modern indigenous platforms is essential not just for deterrence, but for upholding India’s sovereignty and global standing.

Similarly, India’s Navy—tasked with safeguarding one of the world’s most vital maritime regions—requires rapid modernization and enhanced indigenous capability to meet emerging threats and secure sea lanes.

As India completed eleven years of this journey under Prime Minister Modi, it is clear that the foundations of a New India have been laid. The next phase must involve completing this transformation—ensuring that India’s rise is not only defined by economic growth and social development, but by strategic resilience, technological self-reliance, military strength, and a skilled workforce capable of driving innovation and productivity. An economically strong India is no doubt important, but it is a strong and secure India, with economic muscle, military capability, and a future-ready human capital base, that can truly claim its place as a leading global power.

Suvas Parivar Milan 2025: A Celebration of Togetherness and Nostalgia

 Suvas Parivar Milan 2025: A Celebration of Togetherness and Nostalgia

 

We are just back last week from a family get together of my maternal family members, particularly those members who stayed together at some point of time in ‘Suvas’, a family house in Rajkot. Memories of time spent in this house are many and eternal.

The year 2025 marks a special occasion for the families who once shared a unique bond under the roof of Suvas, an abode that transcended being a mere dwelling and became a symbol of unity, love, and cherished memories. Suvas, meaning “fragrance” in English, aptly encapsulated the essence of those who lived there—everyone adding their own vibrant hue to a collective tapestry of harmony and shared experiences.

A Home, Not Just a House

Suvas was more than bricks and mortar; it was a sanctuary of togetherness, where relationships blossomed, laughter echoed in every corner, and values were nurtured. Over the years, Suvas became synonymous with a way of life—a fragrant essence that united families, forged lifelong friendships, and created countless memories.

At different times, families found themselves calling Suvas their home. Despite the inevitable changes in their individual journeys, one thing remained constant: the indelible mark Suvas left on their hearts.

The Spirit of Milan (Reunion)

Suvas Parivar Milan 2025 was not merely a gathering but a heartfelt tribute to the bonds formed under its roof. It was a time to rekindle connections, relive moments of shared joy, and celebrate the legacy of Suvas. The reunion provided opportunity for all generations—those who lived in Suvas as children, parents, or grandparents—to come together and honor the values that the home symbolized.

This gathering also represented the continuity of shared dreams and aspirations, reminding everyone of the collective strength that arises when individuals come together as a family. It is a chance to revisit the cherished traditions, savor the flavors of meals once shared, and listen to the stories that shaped their shared identity.

A Fragrance That Lingers

The beauty of Suvas lies in its ability to evoke the sweetest memories, much like a lingering fragrance that stays long after its source is gone. Suvas Parivar Milan seeks to capture and amplify that essence, allowing its participants to take a step back in time while looking forward to new beginnings.

 

        Through interactive sessions, shared meals, and moments of reflection, the reunion ensured that the bonds forged in Suvas remain strong and vibrant. It is not just about the past but also about strengthening connections for the future, ensuring that the fragrance of Suvas continues to inspire generations to come.

Bringing Family Closer: A Milestone of Suvas Parivar Milan 2025

One of the most beautiful outcomes of Suvas Parivar Milan 2025 was the opportunity it provided for family members to meet and connect with relatives we had never met before. It is not often that life grants us such a meaningful chance to bridge gaps created by time, distance, and circumstance, but this Milan did just that—bringing together generations and branches of the family tree into one thriving, vibrant gathering.

        Faces that were once familiar only through stories or photographs came alive in the warmth of personal interaction. Strangers by time became kin through conversations filled with laughter, shared memories, and new bonds forged in the spirit of togetherness.

        The reunion allowed us to rediscover our family’s incredible diversity and strength. It reminded us that despite our differences in location, lifestyle, or generation, we are all connected by a shared heritage and the enduring essence of Suvas—a place that once united us physically and now does so emotionally.

A Stress Buster

In the hustle and bustle of our daily lives, moments of pure joy and relaxation are rare and precious. Suvas Parivar Milan 2025 proved to be a much-needed stress buster, offering everyone a chance to step away from their routine pressures and immerse themselves in an atmosphere of warmth, laughter, and togetherness.

        Such gatherings are a powerful reminder that family is one of life’s greatest sources of comfort and strength. They help us let go of stress, embrace the present, and find solace in the connections that truly matter. Suvas Parivar Milan 2025 was not just a reunion—it was a celebration of life, love, and the healing power of togetherness.

Icing on the Cake: A book on life of Our Beloved Bina Masi

As if the joy of Suvas Parivar Milan 2025 was not already fulfilling enough, the unveiling of the book on the life of our beloved Bina Masi added a heartfelt and deeply meaningful touch to the celebration—a true icing on the cake.

        This book is more than just a collection of stories; it is a living tribute to a woman who has touched so many lives with her wisdom, kindness, and unwavering love. Through its pages, we revisited the journey of a life well-lived—a life dedicated to family, compassion, and strength. The anecdotes, milestones, and reflections captured in the book serve not only as a chronicle of her life but also as a treasure trove of lessons and inspiration for generations to come.

        Thank you, Shilpa, Ashit, Sonali and Pratik for sharing the stories of the life our beloved Bina Masi. It is truly the jewel of this unforgettable Milan. Bina Masi’s legacy will continue to inspire us, just as her love always has.

A Heartfelt Thank You

As we reflect on the beautiful memories created at Suvas Parivar Milan 2025, we are filled with immense gratitude for those whose hard work, dedication, and meticulous planning turned this gathering into an unforgettable celebration.

    To the individuals and teams who spent countless hours arranging the logistics, coordinating travel plans, and orchestrating every detail—your efforts brought together not just people but hearts, making this event a true testament to the spirit of Suvas.

        Thanks to each one in organizing team – your vision and commitment, the reunion was alive with music, fun, laughter, and nostalgia, creating an atmosphere where cherished moments of the past intertwined seamlessly with the joy of the present. The sight of four generations coming together, from the youngest toddlers to the wisest elders, was nothing short of magical.

        We also extend our gratitude to those who traveled from lands far away to be part of this special gathering. Your presence added to the warmth and beauty of the occasion, making it a truly global celebration of love and togetherness.

        Suvas Parivar Milan 2025 will forever remain etched in our hearts as a reminder of the strength and beauty of family bonds, the power of shared memories, and the joy of coming home to the essence of Suvas—our fragrant haven of unity.

        Thank you for making it all possible.

Our only regret

        Our only regret was absence of Rajesh Mama, the architect and soul of Suvas Parivar Milan.  Though he could not join us physically, his presence was felt in every moment, every laugh and every cherished connection.  Thank you mama for being guiding spirit behind this movement.  

Till we meet again

As we have gone back to our respective mundane life, it is this hope for the future—a future where we will come together once more, to celebrate, reconnect, and create new memories—that will keep us going. That is the magical healing power of Suvas Parivar Milan. The bonds forged during this Milan will only grow stronger with time, and the prospect of meeting again, sharing stories, and celebrating our shared legacy will be the beacon that keeps us looking forward.

        Until then, we carry the fragrance of Suvas in our hearts, cherishing the moments we shared and eagerly counting the days until we meet again.

Here is to the next Milan and the joy it promises to bring!

Sanjay Deepa Rashi Patanjali

 

 

 

One Nation One Election

 As per Press Release of the Ministry of Law and Justice, the high-level committee on ‘One Nation One Election’ constituted under the chairmanship of former President of India Shri Ramnath Kovind in their report submitted to Hon’ble President of India Shrimati Draupadi Murmu has recommended a two-step approach to lead to the simultaneous elections.

As the first step, simultaneous elections will be held for the House of the People and the State Legislative Assemblies.  In the second step, elections to the Municipalities and the Panchayats to be synchronized with the House of the People and the State Legislative Assemblies in such a way that Municipalities and Panchayats elections are held within hundred days of holding elections to the House of the People and the State Legislative Assemblies.

I fully endorse the idea of One Nation One Election and I believe these recommendations chart a good roadmap to finally move towards simultaneous elections.

Following are some of the thoughts on why we need synchronised elections. 

A must to be a developed nation

The concurrent elections or two-phased elections are not just desirable, but imperative for the country’s advancement to much mature democracy and necessity if we aspire for our country to be in the league of developed nations.   Of course we do, and must, aspire to be a developed nation.

No democratic country in the list of developed nations is as populous and as big in size in terms of the number of provinces as India.  Except United States of America and to an extent South Africa.  Other democracies in the list are small and hence having separate federal and provincial elections don’t matter much in terms of cost and days lost due to electioneering. And elections in these countries do not require deployment of security apparatus and are not as intense and tense as they are in India. Of the two big countries, USA has system of two- phased elections and South Africa has concurrent one.

 Saving on cost

The Centre for Media Studies has pegged around Rs 55000 crore or $8 billion spent during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.  This includes the amount spent by candidates, political parties and election commission.  It is estimated that out of total cost of holding parliamentary and assembly elections, about 20% is spent by election commission. According to this estimate EC spent around Rs 10000-12000 crore for the 2019 parliamentary election.  In addition, between 2019 and 2024 parliamentary elections, EC would have spent on every state election in between separately.  It is obvious, therefore, that holding Lok Sabha and state elections would significantly reduce massive expenditure, the saving of which can be utilised for projects that create jobs and fuel economic growth.  The saving can also come handy for funding welfare schemes.

Better for administrative efficiency and security

There are at least 4-5 elections that happen every year.  This causes administrative machinery to slow down considerably as officials are put on poll duty. In addition, the paramilitary forces that are withdrawn from their posting and deployed in concerned states for securing peaceful conduct of elections.  Simultaneous polls require deployment only once or maximum twice during the year depending on how the methodology of combined elections has been put in practice.  And hence administration and security operations are not frequently interrupted for poll duty requirement.

Avoiding governance paralysis

Every 5 years, there are 30 elections to state legislatures (28 states plus Puducherry and Delhi) and one general election.  Every year average 4 states go to polls. The code of conduct is in place from declaration to announcement of result for average 50 days every year and 70 days for general election.   While code of conduct is in place and parties are busy in campaigning, there is hardly any focus on governance.  So, in effect, out of 1825 days in 5 years, 320 days (50 days per year x 5 years +70 days general election) are lost due to code of conduct and electioneering.  That is almost a year of governance paralysis every five years!!! During this period, all major infrastructure and investment projects in pipeline have to be put on hold, most of government staff remain perennially on election duty and the private sector also holds back on investment due to uncertainty on policies. As a result, the economic activities and development work suffer and with that job and livelihood get adversely affected.

How can we as a nation aspiring to be the world leader can continue with such wasteful exercise of multiple elections one after the other when there are ways to redeem the situation.  

Larger voter turnout

One of the most important factors for any democracy is participation of voters.  Larger voter participation lends vibrancy and broader representation to democracy.   Frequent elections can cause voter fatigue resulting in lower voter turnout.   In the 2019 general election, the voter turnout was 67.40 percent.  Which means that out of 91.20 crore registered voter, 61.10 crore turned out to vote. This figure could go up significantly in case of both parliamentary and assembly elections are held simultaneously.  This will potentially make exercise more inclusive. 

Positive impact on education and health

Annual Status of Education Report (ASER) states that nearly 43% of children in the 14-18 age group in rural areas cannot read sentences in English, while 25% struggle to read a Class 2 level text in their respective regional language.

One of the major factors could well be that teaching staff of primary, secondary institutes and universities imparting higher education as well as technical education are put on election duty and as a result student are left unattended for months, affecting their learning, growth and progress. 

A 2016 report titled ‘Involvement of Teachers in Non-teaching Activities and its Effect on Education’ showed that teachers spent 81% of their time in non-teaching activities, most of which went into election duty.

Public health workers are also assigned pre-election tasks like verification of voter cards and other tasks. They include nurses, clerks, paramedics and technicians who perform important day-to-day work.  Their frequent deployment to election related duties could adversely affect public health initiatives and activities. 

Education and health play very important role in a nation’s wellbeing. We must do everything possible to make them efficient.  

Concerns

One major concern of regional parties over simultaneous elections is that it would overshadow regional and state issues and the national parties will have advantage over regional parties which is detrimental to the federal structure of the country.  The regional parties would not be able to compete with national parties in terms of election expenditure and election strategy.

Legislative assembly elections in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim were held simultaneously with the general election of 2019, as well as by-elections of twenty-two seats of the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly.  Yet regional parties in three out of four states won the election.  The ruling party at the Center won only in one which is 25%.  So, the fear that the concurrent elections are disadvantageous to regional parties and that local issues would be overshadowed is misplaced.

There are various other concerns like pre-mature dissolutions due to various reasons, feasibility and practicality of holding parliamentary, assemblies and local elections together from point of view of adequacy of resources and security and other statutory requirements like holding election within six months of dissolution of a government.

The Law Commission Working Paper have made several recommendations to address these issues through amendments of Representation of the People’s Act, the no-confidence motion may be replaced with constructive vote as in Germany through suitable amendments in rules of business and the statutory limits may be extended as a one-time measure. 

Anti-defection law could be amended to allow defection only after full-term is served by a member elected on a particular party ticket.  This will also reduce scope for horse-trading.

Conclusion

The idea of One Nation One Poll in India offers cost saving and reduces disruptions caused by frequent elections.  There are logistical and constitutional challenges but a well-thought-out plan with involvement of all stakeholders, the idea is implementable and desirable from the perspectives of cost, governance, administrative efficiency and social cohesion.  In conclusion, quoting a view of Bharat Ratna and former President of India Late Shri Pranab Mukherjee on simultaneous elections would be most appropriate. 

“With some election or the other throughout the year, normal activities of the government come to standstill because of code of conduct.  This is an idea the political leadership should think of.  If political parties collectively think, we can change it.  The Election Commission can also put in their idea and efforts on holding the polls together and that will be highly beneficial.”

I endorse the idea fully.

Rising India narrative over China

Let us first understand genesis of the rise of profile of India. India started to get noticed when India and US signed civil nuclear cooperation agreement in March 2006.  Although India-U.S. relations were on stable course unlike earlier years which can be described as a period of roller coaster relation between two countries, it was not yet there for getting into something as significant as cooperation in civil nuclear deal even when India was -and still is - not signatory to Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).  

To facilitate the deal, President George W Bush went extra mile to push through amendment to domestic law and grant of an exemption from. Nuclear Supplier Group for nuclear cooperation with non-member India. It was unbelievable precedence for the global polity, which since then has been tracking India. The deal was in my opinion was the arrival of India on global stage.  

 

The signing of the deal was part of a well thought out strategy by US.  It was to bring India into the centre stage as a pivot to its Asia policy and as a counter to China’s growing clout.  The reason to choose India was obvious.  The largest democracy.   With all its flows but still a democracy.  Its economy on the rise consistently since it was liberalized in 1991. At the time of signing, India was the 14^th largest economy in the ranking of GDP of 195 countries, rising per capita offering very large consumer market, housing, retail, infrastructure on growth trajectory, strong currency, large forex.  India was clearly on robust growth path. Militarily, it was already having second largest army after China and a nuclear power.  

The narrative was set as comparative discourse about India and China entered in all debates around economy and geopolitics.  However, in the period that followed, China was more focused on building its own economy and positioning it into pre-eminence position. The focus was lesser on border disputes with India.  There was no movement on India-US deal which largely remained on paper. The US Senate passed it in October 2008 into 123 Agreement.  Unfortunately, global financial crisis unfolded following housing bubble bust in the US bringing down Lehman Brother which cause ripple effect globally.  In India too economic began to falter. Economic growth decelerated in 2008-09 to 6.7 percent. This represented a decline of 2.1 percent from the average growth rate of 8.8 percent in the previous five years. The Reserve Bank of India (India’s central bank) swiftly responded by easing monetary policy and the government by introducing stimulus packages to boost demands.  This calibrated response put GDP growth back on track to pre-crisis level and the economy as the fastest growing major economy after China.  The world again took note of India.  So did China.

The above background was necessary to grasp how India story was shaping up to elevate its global profile. 

Just as in India the general election mood was occupying much of news space from middle of 2014, in China the change of guard took place as Xi Jinping was elected as President by National People’s Congress in March 2013.  He immediately started flexing muscle against India with border incursions in next three successive years.  But soon India was going to change.  The political alliance of Bhratiya Janata Party (BJP) won general election with landslide majority and Narendra Modi assumed office of the Prime Minister.  He immediately embarked upon extensive engagements with global leaders in terms of bilateral visits in his first term of five years.  Under him, the diplomacy changed profoundly.  From reactive to proactive and from defensive to aggressive. It moved away from its non-aligned posture since independence. 

Then came the black swan event of the century – the Covid pandemic grinding the world to halt. Complete lockdown of economies around the world.  The reports of the origin and spread of deadly virus from Wuhan in China to entire world changed the perception of China in the minds of global community.  The over dependence on Chinese supply chain proved costly for world economy which remained severely disrupted for much of next two years.  This realization caused governments and businesses around the world to mo e to China + 1 strategy for alternative supply chain.  At the same time Xi Jinping started clamping down on global companies who had established units in China after its open economy policy. It became more and more unpredictable to do business in China.  Its zero-covid policy crippled its economy and fault line started to appear in economy with burgeoning deficit to GDP ratio.   

At the same time, India was becoming more and business friendly with economy robust and unlike China it was founded on strong fundamentals and not on deficit financing.  

In the last decade under Modi, India has changed completely.  The Indian image has been recognized, whether it is for the 3^rd largest startup hub, innovation, space achievement, building world class infrastructure, yoga, pharmacy of the world, its vaccine diplomacy, talent pool of skilled youth, leading climate action in Paris and Glasgow, its aggressive posture against China during 2020 border clashes, its lifting of 250 million people from below poverty line, its role of solution provider in multilateral dialogues, and its impressive G20 presidency.

The fundamental change that the Prime Minister Modi brought was shifting the international political discourse and attracting global businesses to increasing look at India as alternative to China. 

The first two terms of Modi government worked in financial inclusion, health insurance, electricity, gas, water, roads, toilets, food, houses and digitisation. The production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme was a great economic initiative that could transform India into export-oriented manufacturing hub and ideal destination for foreign companies looking for diversifying their production from a china’s increasing draconian rules.  The world has also noticed with awe the technology advances India has made, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) and Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) are gaining global traction. 

The PM Gati Shakti Master Plan (Speed with power) for providing multimodal connectivity to various economic zones is transformative.  Economic Zones like textile clusters, pharmaceutical clusters, defence corridors, electronic parks, industrial corridors, fishing clusters, agri zones etc. are being mapped for integrated infrastructure planning and make Indian businesses more cost competitive. This will boost economic growth, attract foreign investments while de-risking investments by visualizing the connectivity, and enhance the country’s global competitiveness in export markets.

While China’s economy is slowing down, its population greying, the Indian economy is likely to achieve a growth rate of 7% in fiscal year 2025 after growing at or above 7% in 2023-24, driven by resilient domestic demand despite risks and uncertainties in the global economic landscape. More than 50% of India’s population below the age of 25 and more than 65% below the age of 35. It will continue to have this demographic dividend until 2050.   

In next three years, Indian economy, which is 5^th largest now, is likely to become the 3^rd largest.  The stock market and banking system are robust.  The ease of doing business has improved drastically, FDI policy has been liberalized to allow 100% through automatic route, the invest climate has improved, 

According to the World Investment Report 2023, India emerges as the FDI powerhouse and secures the third-highest foreign investment in 2021-22. The total amount of FDI inflows received during the last ten years (April 2014-September 2023) was US$ 629.58 billion. This FDI has come from more than 101 countries that have invested across 31 Union Territories and States and 57 sectors in the country.

Add to this the interim Union budget presented by the finance minister of India on February 1.  It reflected the government commitment to accelerate efforts towards achieving developed nation status by 2047. It is remarkable that a big increase in capital outlay by 11% to around 150 billion USD and fund allocation of around 13 billion USD for work opportunities and employment generation has been done while adhering to fiscal discipline.  This is more praiseworthy that the fiscal prudence was maintained even though this year being general election year when generally the government resorts reckless splurge on populism. Globally, investors were expecting that.   Investors have recognized continued focus on fiscal sanctity, and it is reflected in global interest in doing business with India. India’s stock markets also reflect this enthusiasm. India’s markets recently overtook Hong Kong to become the world’s fourth largest with a valuation of $4.33 trillion.

Clearly, there is discernible shift in global narrative of India over China.